The economy today goes down, we are in the race of rat still where several of people do not have any work or unemployed. In a dull report/ratio Friday, the Ministry of Labour said that almost 600,000 work disappeared in January and that a total of 3.6 million work had been lost since the beginning of the recession in December 2007. Unemployment rate, while waiting, reached 7.6 percent, of 7.2 percent per month earlier.Losing more than half of million work in each of the last three months, the country is imprisoned in a vortex of unemployment of plunging of request of the consumers, rise and a crisis of deepening in the banking system.
The contraction in work is already stiffer than in any recession since at least beginning of the year 80. But the economists inform that several more shoes are about to drop itself.
The first is the increasing severity of the total recession, which already started to block with far from exports starting from the United States. The China growth slowed down with a fraction of sound not usually sharp, driving with the brutal reductions in South Korea, Asian Japan and other nations. Much Europe slipped into a recession, too.
A second shoe returned from workman to the United States. One stains apparently luminous in recent histories of a work, including that Friday, was that the weekly hourly salaries and incomes continued to advance upwards. But the economists say that the tendency is almost sure to reverse soon and to cause more constraint on consumers. The consumer expenditure, which represents a third of economic activity, slowed down rigorously as many workmen lose their work and others worry about their own security of employment.
The third large shoe is the banking system, which is awaited finally to bring back $1 trillions to $3 trillions more in the losses attached to the market of housing.
The result, the economists say, are that the United States will face unemployment in rise for at least the remainder of this year, even if the congress passes to a large economic invoice of stimulus this week.
In his report/ratio for last month, the Ministry of Labour estimated 598.000 work were cut inside January, and it updated to the top the loss for the previous month at 577.000. Moreover, the department updated its estimates for the 12 previous months to prove that the employers threw 400.000 additional work that in the beginning calculated, pushing the total more nearly four million.
While waiting, unemployment rate reached 7.6 percent in January, highest since 1992. But this number minimized the weakness in the hiring because the hundreds of thousands of people fell out of labour during the last year. On that, 3.1 million additional people worked part-time because they could not find employment full-time.
Companies are panicked and fight for survival and gash their books of pay, said the Zandi mark, depressed principal economist at Economy.com. I think that we are imprisoned in very unfavourable, individual-reinforcing the cycle. The reduction intensifies, and probable to intensify further unless the political decision makers answer aggressively.
The economists almost did not find any news in an encouraging way in the report/ratio, to say each component of the economy, the consumers to the employers with the lenders, drew support fear or need, and to lower of this fact the others.
It is an exposure of horror which we observe, said Lawrence Mishel, president of the institute of economic policy, an organization for economic research in Washington.
As in previous months, the employers in almost each industry reduced their books of pay, with health care an exception. The manufacturers eliminated 207.000 work, more than in any year since 1982. The construction trade eliminated 111.000 work. And the retailers, who concluded their worse season from purchases of holidays in years, eliminated 45.000 work.
The field of the losses, the width of them and speed are depressionlike, and by that I want to say like the Thirties, said Allen the Sinai, the principal economist with the economic scenes of decision, a company of economic forecasts in Lexington, Massachusetts.
Even if the recession proved similar to the recent reductions and the economy started to turn to the top still soon, unemployment would probably continue to rise during much month. It is because the employers are laid out usually little with cong�dier of the workmen at the beginning of a reduction and of the same little been willing to engage them behind at the beginning of a re-establishment.
Many economists provide that the United States will lose at least two million additional work, though they continue to give the hope so that a precarious expansion takes the catch in second half of this year. Ian C. Shepherdson, an economist with the high frequency economic scenes in Valhalla, N.Y., provided that the job market would continue to narrow until the middle of 2010.
There are few hopes of a reversal soon. The consumer expenditure managed usually to go up during the recessions, but abruptly decreased for the last six months and do not show any sign of a rebound. Indeed, the federal reservation returned account Friday that the use of the consumers of the credit decreased 3.1 percent, or $6.6 billion, in December. That followed a dive of $11 billion in November.
Consumers, it seems, develop more careful about the loan. But the banks are also laid out to lend, according to the last investigation of federal reservation of the agents lenders.
To be added to the sinister prospects is the total economy, with Asia and Europe in their own reductions.
Just looking around the world, the request crumbles, said Nigel Gault, managing director at HIS Global Insight in Waltham, Massachusetts the growth that Chinese fell from the rates to two digits to approximately 6 percent. The gross domestic product of South Korea fell 5.5 percent between the third and fourth quarters from 2008 - a annualized decline of 21 percent. This recession is of a different order of magnitude, Mr. Gault said. We did not have a crisis which is this total in kind.
A modest exception to the history of a generally dull work of the Ministry of Labour was in the wages of the workmen. The time incomes sharpened to the top of 0.3 percent in January, and were in rise of 3.9 percent during the last year. The weekly incomes made tic TAC to the top as well, and were there is one that one year 2.7 percent more top.
But the analysts said that the tendency was an anomaly.
The report/ratio of employment put added the pressure on the congress to conclude the agreement on a package of economic revival, and the Democrats senate fought furious Friday to solve a combination of the reductions of the taxes and expenditure which would be assembled to approximately $800 billion and would gain enough republican support to pass.
Many economists said that an economic invoice of stimulus was crucial, independently of the details, because the expenditure of the government became almost the only manner of breaking the vicious cycle between the investment of descent of a request and descent.
But much also informed that the expenditure and the reductions of the additional taxes could not be enough, and could not work in the manner after the theory suggests. We remain firmly of the sight that the package maintaining in the congress is the strict minimum required, wrote Mr. Shepherdson of the high frequency economic scenes, in a note with the customers. But, it envisaged, it will prove finally too small.
Mr. the Sinai, with the economic scenes of decision, informed that this reduction was so different from the majority of the others which it was difficult to be trustful about the way in which the economy would answer the money of government.
The economy threw 598,000 work in January
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